LOS ANGELES, CA – Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman leads incumbent Mayor Karen Bass by 11 percentage points in a new poll of likely city voters, although a large share of the electorate remains undecided ahead of the Nov. 3 mayoral election.
The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey, conducted online from Sept. 15 through Sept. 20, found Raman with 39% support and Bass with 28%. Another 33% of likely voters said they were undecided. The survey included 2,150 likely Los Angeles voters and has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.
The results provide a snapshot of the race at a point when ballots are approaching the mail stage, but the large undecided share leaves a substantial portion of the electorate without a stated preference in the survey.
Poll shows shift from June primary
The latest numbers differ from the results of the June 2 primary, when Bass finished first with 34% of the vote and Raman placed second with 29%. Spencer Pratt received 26% and did not advance to the November election.
The new survey found that many of Pratt’s former supporters have not yet chosen between the two remaining candidates.
Among voters who supported Pratt in the primary, 63% remained undecided in the Berkeley IGS survey. Of those who had selected one of the two candidates, 22% supported Bass while 16% supported Raman.
That undecided group is one of the most significant elements of the poll because it represents voters whose preferences were not captured by either candidate’s current support level.
Berkeley IGS Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said the unusually large undecided share is notable this close to the election. The survey itself is part of Berkeley IGS’s broader polling program, which describes its work as measuring contemporary public opinion on political and public-policy issues.
Favorability numbers differ between candidates
The poll also measured how likely voters view each candidate.
Bass had a 63% unfavorable rating, compared with 28% who viewed her favorably and 9% who had no opinion.
Raman received a 40% favorable rating, while 39% viewed her unfavorably and 21% said they had no opinion.
The survey also asked respondents about Bass’ handling of the January 2025 Palisades fire emergency. According to the poll results, 56% of likely voters rated her response poor or very poor.
The Palisades fire killed 12 people and destroyed thousands of homes, making the city’s response to the disaster one of the issues included in assessments of Bass’ mayoral tenure.
Support varies by age
The survey found substantial differences in candidate support across age groups.
Raman received 66% support among likely voters ages 18 to 29 and 64% among voters ages 30 to 39, according to the poll.
Bass had stronger support among voters 65 and older, receiving 41% in that age group compared with 21% for Raman.
The results indicate that the two candidates’ support is not distributed evenly across the city’s electorate. Age is one of several demographic factors that produced significant differences in the survey.
Geographic differences emerge
The poll also found differences across Los Angeles regions.
Raman led in most geographic areas included in the survey. Bass had an advantage in South Los Angeles and the Harbor region, where the poll showed her at 37% compared with Raman at 34%.
In the San Fernando Valley, Raman received 34% support compared with 26% for Bass, while 40% of voters in that region remained undecided.
The Westside was considerably closer, with Raman at 35% and Bass at 34%.
The geographic breakdown underscores the extent to which the overall citywide figures combine different voting patterns across Los Angeles.
Bass campaign disputes poll
Bass’ campaign has challenged the significance of the survey, describing it as an outlier and arguing that its online-only methodology may not fully represent some segments of the city’s electorate.
Campaign spokesman Alex Stack said the campaign’s internal view of the race differs from the Berkeley IGS findings. He pointed to what the campaign considers accomplishments on housing, public safety and neighborhood investment while criticizing Raman on issues including homelessness and constituent services.
The campaign also argued that online polling can underrepresent seniors, working-class voters and people who primarily communicate in languages other than English.
Those are campaign arguments about the methodology and political environment rather than findings established by the Berkeley IGS survey itself.
The poll’s methodology is important when interpreting the numbers: it was conducted online among 2,150 likely city voters from Sept. 15 through Sept. 20, with an approximately 3-point margin of error.
Other polling has shown different margins
The Berkeley IGS survey is not the only poll conducted during the campaign.
A separate internal poll released by the Raman campaign earlier in September showed Raman leading Bass 44% to 39%, with 17% undecided. Another survey commissioned by a group supporting Raman showed a closer initial result, while an August poll commissioned by an independent expenditure group supporting Bass showed Bass ahead 41% to 35%, with 24% undecided.
Because those surveys were conducted by different organizations, at different times and with different methodologies, their results are not directly interchangeable. The Berkeley IGS poll provides one measurement of likely-voter preferences during the Sept. 15-20 field period.
The high percentage of undecided voters also means the latest survey does not measure a final election result. It records candidate preferences at the time respondents were interviewed.
Candidates scheduled for Sept. 29 forum
Bass and Raman are scheduled to appear at the Jewish Los Angeles Mayoral Forum on Sept. 29 in Los Angeles.
The Jewish Federation Los Angeles lists the event as a conversation with the two candidates for mayor, scheduled from 5:30 p.m. to 9 p.m.
The forum comes as campaigns enter the final weeks before voters begin receiving ballots.
California’s Secretary of State says county election officials will begin mailing ballots for the Nov. 3, 2026, general election by Oct. 5, while the last day to register online to vote is Oct. 19.
Large undecided bloc remains
The latest Berkeley IGS survey therefore presents two simultaneous findings: Raman has 39% support among likely voters compared with 28% for Bass, while 33% have not selected either candidate.
The undecided share is particularly notable among former Pratt voters, 63% of whom remained undecided in the survey. That group represents voters who participated in the June primary but have not yet indicated a preference between the two candidates advancing to November.
Information gathered by Street People indicates that the poll should be read as a measurement of voter sentiment during a specific five-day field period, rather than as a prediction of the November result.
The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk provides official election information for Los Angeles County, while the state elections office provides statewide registration and ballot information.
With the election still ahead, the next major public campaign event is the Sept. 29 mayoral forum, followed by the October ballot-mailing period and the Nov. 3 general election.
