LOS ANGELES, CA – Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman is leading Mayor Karen Bass by 11 percentage points in a new poll of likely city voters, although a sizable share of voters remains undecided ahead of the Nov. 3 mayoral election.
The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey found Raman with 39% support among likely voters, compared with 28% for Bass. Another 33% said they were undecided.
The online survey was conducted from Sept. 15 through Sept. 20 among 2,150 likely Los Angeles voters. The reported margin of error is approximately 3 percentage points.
The poll therefore represents a snapshot of voter preferences during a specific period. It does not determine the election outcome, and the large undecided share means the survey does not provide a final measure of how voters will cast their ballots.
Poll comes months after the June primary
The current mayoral race was narrowed to Bass and Raman after the June 2 primary election.
Official Los Angeles County election results show Bass received 34.27% of the vote, while Raman received 29.02%. Spencer Pratt finished third with 25.53%, leaving Bass and Raman to advance to the November election.
The difference between the primary results and the latest poll is notable in descriptive terms: Bass received the larger share of votes in the June contest, while Raman has the larger share in this September survey of likely voters.
The two elections also involve different circumstances. The June primary included multiple candidates, while the November contest is a two-candidate runoff between Bass and Raman.
One-third of likely voters remain undecided
The 33% undecided figure is one of the most significant findings in the survey.
That group is larger than the difference between the two candidates in the poll. As a result, the survey captures a race in which a substantial portion of likely voters had not selected either candidate when interviewed.
The poll also found differences in how voters viewed the two candidates.
Bass had a 28% favorable rating and a 63% unfavorable rating, while 9% said they had no opinion. Raman had a 40% favorable rating, compared with 39% unfavorable, while 21% had no opinion.
Those figures measure candidate favorability, rather than intended vote choice, and should be treated as separate questions within the same survey.
Bass remains mayor through the election
Bass is the incumbent mayor of Los Angeles and has held the office since December 2022. The Los Angeles City Clerk lists Bass as the current mayor, with her current term scheduled to expire in December 2026.
During her administration, Bass has emphasized homelessness, housing, public safety and basic city services.
In May, she signed the city’s fiscal year 2026-27 budget, which included funding priorities involving homelessness, police hiring and city services.
On Sept. 23, Bass’ office also announced that more than 10,000 affordable housing units had been built across Los Angeles under her administration. That figure is an administration-reported measure of housing production and is part of Bass’ campaign-period record and messaging.
The mayor’s official City of Los Angeles profile provides additional information about her administration and its stated priorities.
Raman is seeking the mayor’s office after two terms on the City Council
Raman currently represents Los Angeles City Council District 4. The Los Angeles City Council District 4 office identifies her as the district’s councilmember and describes the district as extending from areas including Silver Lake and Los Feliz to portions of the San Fernando Valley.
According to her official city biography, Raman was elected to the City Council in 2020 and won reelection in 2024. Her stated areas of focus include homelessness, affordable housing, renters’ rights, environmental policy, transportation and public safety.
Her official City Council press releases show recent work involving homelessness, housing and other city policy issues.
The poll is therefore measuring voters’ preferences between an incumbent mayor and a sitting councilmember with several years of experience in Los Angeles municipal government.
Election date is Nov. 3
The mayoral runoff is part of the Nov. 3, 2026, general election. The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk lists the November election and provides voter and candidate information for Los Angeles County.
The California Secretary of State’s election calendar states that counties must begin mailing vote-by-mail ballots no later than Oct. 5. Early voting locations open Oct. 5, while Vote Centers in participating counties begin opening Oct. 24. Election Day is Nov. 3, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
The latest Berkeley IGS poll was conducted before those general-election ballots begin the regular countywide mailing period.
With Raman at 39%, Bass at 28% and 33% undecided in the survey, the results provide a measurement of where likely voters stood during the Sept. 15-20 polling period. The election itself will be decided by ballots cast in November.
