LOS ANGELES, CA – As wildfires continue to devastate Los Angeles County, destroying tens of thousands of homes and displacing scores of families, experts fear the state’s homelessness crisis may soon reach unprecedented levels. Already grappling with one of the largest unhoused populations in the country, California faces long-term fallout from these fires, which threaten to exacerbate existing housing shortages, inflate rents, and leave many displaced residents permanently homeless.
Jennielynn Holmes, CEO of Catholic Charities of the Diocese of Santa Rosa, experienced the long-lasting effects of wildfire displacement after the 2017 Tubbs Fire tore through Santa Rosa. Holmes vividly recalls the moment she realized how such disasters can push vulnerable individuals into homelessness. Standing in a makeshift evacuation center filled with survivors, she thought, “This is the group of people [that] is one crisis away from entering homelessness. And the crisis is here.”
Similar fears are growing in Los Angeles County, where the fires have already consumed more than 40,000 acres, killed at least 24 people, and destroyed an estimated 12,000 structures. As thousands scramble to find temporary shelter, experts warn that the destruction could further strain the county’s housing market, which already struggles to support its 75,000 unhoused residents.
While wealthy enclaves like Pacific Palisades have received much of the attention during these fires, analysts say the housing crisis will disproportionately impact renters and lower-income residents. For those who lose their homes, rebuilding may take years, and for renters, the loss of affordable housing stock often forces them into financial and housing instability.
Historically, California wildfires have demonstrated a ripple effect, displacing not only those directly impacted but also vulnerable renters and low-income families in surrounding communities. After a major fire, landlords often raise rents to capitalize on increased demand, evict existing tenants to accommodate displaced family members, or sell properties entirely. In other cases, rising home insurance premiums make rebuilding prohibitively expensive, further limiting options for those trying to recover.
The Ripple Effect of Past Fires
An analysis of previous California wildfires underscores the potential long-term impact of the current Los Angeles fires.
- Camp Fire (2018): After the Camp Fire destroyed much of Paradise, Butte County saw a surge in homelessness that persists to this day. Approximately 15,000 homes were lost, and only about 2,900 single-family homes and 550 multi-family units have been rebuilt so far. Vacancy rates in nearby Chico plummeted to less than 1%, and temporary housing solutions, such as trailers and RVs on burned-out properties, became permanent for many, often under unsanitary conditions. “We are still dealing with people being chronically houseless due to the Camp Fire,” said Matt Plotkin, a former recovery leader who now advocates for wildfire survivors.
- CZU Lightning Complex (2020): Fires in Santa Cruz County destroyed nearly 700 homes, displacing residents in the rural Santa Cruz Mountains, a historically affordable refuge. Many survivors relocated to urban areas like Santa Cruz, further straining an already tight housing market. Even now, only about one-third of the destroyed homes have been rebuilt, according to a 2024 Santa Cruz County report. “Losing those homes has worsened the region’s affordable housing crisis,” said Robert Ratner, Santa Cruz County’s Housing for Health director.
- Tubbs Fire (2017): In Sonoma County, the Tubbs Fire destroyed thousands of homes and displaced tens of thousands of residents. For a year and a half, many fire survivors relied on temporary aid from FEMA, state programs, and philanthropic donations, but as those resources dried up, they found themselves unhoused. A post-fire survey found that more than 21,000 people in the region were living doubled-up with friends or family, with nearly 40% citing the fire as the cause.
These examples reveal a common pattern: While immediate aid may prevent mass homelessness in the short term, the real crisis often emerges months or years later as housing markets fail to recover and temporary solutions become unsustainable.
The Unique Challenges Facing Los Angeles
The fires in Los Angeles County present distinct challenges, as the region already suffers from a lack of affordable housing. The county has one of the largest unsheltered homeless populations in the nation, and the destruction of 12,000 structures is expected to push even more people into housing instability.
Experts say wealthier neighborhoods like Malibu and Pacific Palisades will likely recover faster due to access to resources, while working-class communities in areas like Altadena may face years of challenges.
“Rebuilding wealthier areas happens faster because of the resources available,” Holmes said. “But for working-class people, the displacement is harder to recover from. It’s incredibly challenging because you’re dealing with a huge new homeless population.”
The fires have also created a sharp divide between renters and homeowners. Renters who are displaced are often at the mercy of rising market rents, while uninsured homeowners may struggle to rebuild entirely. In many cases, even those with insurance face delays in payouts, high rebuilding costs, and rising premiums.
A Climate-Driven Crisis
The growing intensity and frequency of California wildfires, fueled by climate change, add another layer of complexity. Fires are burning hotter, faster, and in more unpredictable ways, making recovery efforts increasingly difficult.
“It’s really putting a strain on all of California at this point,” Plotkin said, noting that each fire sets the state back further in its battle against homelessness and housing insecurity.
Looking Ahead
As Los Angeles County begins to assess the damage and plan for recovery, experts stress the importance of proactive measures to prevent a surge in homelessness. These include increasing affordable housing construction, implementing tenant protections to prevent post-fire evictions, and creating disaster-specific homelessness prevention programs.
Communities hit hardest by wildfires are also calling for improved data collection to better understand how disasters contribute to homelessness. Santa Cruz County, for instance, has begun including fire-related questions in its annual homeless census to quantify the impact of natural disasters on housing stability.
For those who have been through it before, the devastation unfolding in Los Angeles is all too familiar. “We just feel so much for what’s going on down there because we know what it feels like,” Holmes said. “To watch a community you love just be taken away so quickly.”
As Los Angeles faces the monumental task of rebuilding, it also grapples with the reality that these fires are not isolated events but part of an ongoing, climate-driven crisis that continues to reshape the state’s housing landscape.
