LOS ANGELES, CA – Moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel is forecast to bring light rain to Los Angeles and Ventura counties this weekend, along with high surf and coastal flooding, according to the National Weather Service.
The National Weather Service office in Los Angeles/Oxnard forecasts that rain will begin over Los Angeles County late Saturday, Oct. 10, and spread across the region Saturday night and Sunday morning, Oct. 11. Rachel, which weakened from a Category 1 hurricane, is expected to track well south of Los Angeles County.
Totals through Sunday evening are generally forecast at 0.10 to 0.50 inch across Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Forecasters expect the greatest effects along the coast, where swells partly generated by the storm are building.
Long Beach has already reported damage on its Peninsula, and Malibu and Rancho Palos Verdes were reported to have declared local emergencies.
Rain expected late Saturday into Sunday
The weather service expects the rain to start late Saturday over Los Angeles County. It is forecast to spread Saturday night and Sunday morning.
According to initial reports, the most likely period of rain in Los Angeles and Ventura counties is from 9 a.m. Sunday to 9 a.m. Monday, before the system shifts east Sunday afternoon and evening.
Forecasters have said any change in Rachel’s track could change the rainfall numbers.
Rainfall totals by area
The San Gabriel Mountains are forecast to receive about 1 inch of rain through Sunday evening. Totals in Los Angeles and Ventura counties are generally forecast to range from 0.10 to 0.50 inch.
Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties are expected to see only a few hundredths of an inch.
The National Hurricane Center has said higher totals are possible in the Southwest deserts and mountains. Its public advisory calls for rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 5 inches, in the higher terrain of the Southwest.
Rachel’s track and the Tropical Storm Watch
As of 11 a.m. Friday, Oct. 9, Rachel was about 800 miles southwest of San Diego, near 23.1N 124.5W, with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph, according to the same advisory. The storm was moving northeast at about 5 mph.
The hurricane center expects Rachel to accelerate and approach northern Baja California or Southern California late Saturday or early Sunday.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Southern California coast from the U.S.–Mexico border to the San Diego/Orange County line. The advisory also calls for life-threatening surf and rip currents through early next week.
Coastal flood advisory covers beaches
The weather service issued a Coastal Flood Advisory at 1:10 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 8. It runs until 2 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 13.
The advisory covers Los Angeles County beaches, Ventura County beaches, the Malibu Coast and Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands. It calls for minor to moderate coastal flooding, with isolated significant flooding possible, especially on Sunday.
High tides are expected to reach 7.0 to 7.6 feet. Vulnerable spots include beach parking lots, bike paths, harbor walkways and the Alamitos Peninsula in Long Beach.
For San Diego and Orange counties, the weather service issued a separate advisory at 2:12 a.m. Friday, with tides of 6.5 to 7.0 feet.
Long Beach reports damage on Peninsula
Long Beach has opened sandbag sites and reported damage on its Peninsula. Mayor Rex Richardson said Friday: “Protecting our residents is our top priority as high surf and erosion impact our Peninsula community.”
Councilmember Kristina Duggan said in a statement Friday: “Conditions are expected to remain critical through the weekend and into next week.”
According to initial reports, two structures on the 6400 and 6500 blocks of Seaside Walk were red-tagged and two others yellow-tagged. About 30 feet of bulkhead between 65th and 66th Place has deteriorated, and crews placed roughly 1,000 sandbags on damaged areas during low tide.
Malibu and Rancho Palos Verdes declare emergencies
The cities of Malibu and Rancho Palos Verdes were reported to have declared local emergencies during the week of Oct. 5. The declarations are meant to expedite resources in case of storm damage from hazardous coastal conditions.
Long Beach declared a local emergency on Sept. 22, the day after the governor’s statewide proclamation.
Los Angeles prepares drainage and hillsides
In a City of Los Angeles news release about El Niño preparations, Mayor Karen Bass said crews had already seen powerful surf and coastal erosion cause damage. She said that is why the city is acting before the storms arrive.
City crews are clearing more than 31,000 catch basins and drainage sites. They are also reinforcing hillsides and burn areas with more than 13,000 feet of K-rail and sandbags.
Bass urged residents to sign up for alerts at notifyla.org.
State emergency for El Niño remains in place
Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency on Sept. 21 to mobilize state resources ahead of potential winter storms from a strong El Niño. The proclamation remains in place.
It directs state agencies to stage flood-fighting supplies such as sandbags and pumps and to pre-position critical equipment. Caltrans is to stage traffic-control and road-closure equipment along the highways most at risk.
The governor’s office said federal forecasters give a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter, and a 75% chance it could reach historic strength.
Ocean water advisory in effect
The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health advised the public on Oct. 8 to avoid ocean water at several beaches because of elevated bacteria levels.
The department issues a rain advisory after significant rainfall, and it lasts 72 hours after the rain ends.
Forecast depends on Rachel’s track
The weather service and the hurricane center will continue to update their products as Rachel approaches. The Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 2 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 13, and the Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the coast from the Mexican border to the San Diego/Orange County line.
