LOS ANGELES, CA – Forecasters say a very strong and possibly record-setting El Niño is still strengthening ahead of the fall and winter storm season, and California officials are urging Southern California homeowners to check their insurance, roofs and drainage before heavy rain arrives, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
In its ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issued Oct. 8, the center said a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January-March 2027, with a greater than 83% chance. The center also said chances remain high for a historic event.
The risks officials cite include flooding, mudslides and coastal erosion. Standard insurance policies generally do not cover most of that damage, according to the California Department of Insurance.
Forecasters say El Niño is still strengthening
The Climate Prediction Center said El Niño strengthened further last month, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 4.0 degrees Celsius above average in portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific.
A historic event, as the center describes it, would exceed the strength of any previous El Niño dating back to 1950. The center defines that threshold as a three-month value of 2.5 degrees Celsius or more.
Meteorologists caution that El Niño tilts the odds toward a wet winter but does not guarantee one. Ariel Cohen, chief meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Los Angeles and Oxnard, said at an Oct. 5 news conference with Mayor Karen Bass: “We do not know the exact timing, track or intensity of future storms.”
State of emergency proclaimed Sept. 21
Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency on Sept. 21, saying he was “mobilizing state resources ahead of potential winter storms and other impacts.”
The proclamation directs state agencies to stage flood-fighting supplies such as sandbags and pumps. It also directs Caltrans to stage traffic-control and road-closure equipment on highways at risk.
The governor’s office said federal forecasters give a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter and a 75% chance that it reaches historic strength. It also cited a study published in the journal Science last month that found El Niño events are now more than 36% stronger than before the industrial era.
Insurance commissioner urges a coverage review
Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara urged Californians on Sept. 22, in a news release, to review their coverage before the storms. “Now is the time to understand what your insurance covers, know your rights, and take steps to protect your family and property,” he said.
According to the department, homeowners, renters and commercial policies typically exclude damage caused by flooding, mudslides and debris flows. The exception is damage directly or indirectly caused by a recent wildfire or another covered peril.
The department also said comprehensive auto insurance can cover vehicles damaged by flooding or fallen trees.
Flood coverage takes 30 days to start
Flood insurance generally takes effect 30 days after purchase, the department said. The exception is a home purchase in which the lender requires flood insurance.
For a homeowner who does not already have a flood policy, that waiting period means coverage bought now would not necessarily be active for storms that arrive in the coming weeks.
Swiftwater rescue fleet announced Oct. 8
Newsom announced new swiftwater rescue vehicles, boats and equipment on Oct. 8 for 13 local fire departments ahead of the expected storm season.
Each upgraded Type 1 Swiftwater Rescue Team receives heavy-duty tow vehicles, rescue trailers, motorized inflatable boats, updated protective equipment and modern rescue tools. The teams can be deployed through the California Fire and Rescue Mutual Aid System to communities facing flash flooding, flooded roadways and fast-moving rivers.
The governor’s office also warned drivers that water on flooded roads can be deeper and faster-moving than it appears, and that roadways may be damaged or washed out beneath the water.
Los Angeles outlines city preparations
Bass held a news conference with the National Weather Service on Monday, Oct. 5, to detail the city’s work. She said crews have cleared more than 31,000 catch basins and 50 debris basins, and that more than 13,000 feet of K-rail and sandbags have been placed.
“We do not know exactly how much rain LA will get this winter, but we know certainly what heavy rain and strong winds can do here,” Bass said. “That’s why we’re acting now, before the storms arrive.” She added that powerful surf and coastal erosion have already caused damage in the Los Angeles area.
David Hanson, interim general manager of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, said at the same event: “We are ready for El Niño and have strengthened our systems, our teams and our infrastructure.” The mayor’s office has also released information on city preparedness that references planning for an unusually strong El Niño season, including work in burn-scar areas and regular coordination with the National Weather Service.
County crews inspect dams and debris basins
Following Supervisor Lindsey Horvath’s Aug. 11 motion, county officials outlined their 2026-27 storm season preparations, according to Horvath’s office. County crews are inspecting dams, debris basins, channels, storm drains and pump stations and monitoring burn areas.
“LA County crews have been doing the work year-round; now we’re making sure every part of County government is ready to move together when conditions change,” Horvath said. A virtual town hall for residents was scheduled for Sept. 28 at 6 p.m.
Kerjon Lee, chief of strategic communications for LA County Public Works, said the department sees the storm season as “kind of like our Super Bowl.”
Residents urged to sign up for alerts
The county urges residents to sign up for emergency notifications, including evacuation warnings and orders, at alert.lacounty.gov. It also advises clearing gutters and downspouts and fixing roof leaks before the rain begins.
In a National Preparedness Month release on Sept. 18, the county Office of Emergency Management noted that El Niño conditions could increase storm frequency and intensity in the region.
El Niño odds do not guarantee a wet winter
The Climate Prediction Center’s next assessments will show whether El Niño continues to strengthen. Officials at the city, county and state levels have said the forecast raises the odds of a wet winter but does not determine how much rain falls or when.
The emergency proclamation remains in place, and the Department of Insurance continues to advise homeowners to confirm what their policies cover before storms arrive.
