LOS ANGELES, CA – The National Weather Service has issued Red Flag Warnings for most Los Angeles and Ventura County valleys, coasts and mountains as the season’s first Santa Ana winds are forecast to bring strong gusts and humidity as low as 5% to 15% on Thursday and Friday.
The weather service’s Los Angeles/Oxnard office issued the warning at 2:38 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 13, according to its Red Flag Warning product. It is valid from 6 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 15, to 10 p.m. Friday, Oct. 16.
The winds are forecast to build Wednesday and peak from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. The warning states that if a fire ignites, conditions favor extreme fire behavior that would threaten life and property.
Southern California Edison has also told the city of Malibu that it may shut off power on four circuits beginning at midnight Thursday.
Wind and humidity forecast by area
For the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, the National Weather Service describes winds of “Northeast to east 20 to 40 mph with gusts of 50 to 70 mph.” Minimum humidity there is forecast at 8% to 20%.
For most valleys and coasts of the two counties, winds are forecast at 20 to 30 mph from the northeast to east, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Minimum humidity in those areas is forecast at 5% to 15%.
Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the weather service in Oxnard, said large parts of Southern California will see sustained winds of 20 to 40 mph and gusts of 40 to 60 mph between Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon. He said gusts could reach up to 70 mph in the windiest mountain locations.
Kittell said the warm, dry conditions, with highs of 85 to 95 degrees, make fire risk a major concern. He added that the plants are very dry.
Dry vegetation after weekend rain
Southern California received some rain Sunday and Monday, but Kittell said most of it fell south of Los Angeles County. That left Los Angeles and Ventura counties very dry, he said.
Kittell said there is a high risk for any new fires to grow very fast. The weather service also issued wind advisories and high-wind warnings in the mountains, where he said the wind itself could cause downed power lines, power outages and road hazards.
The same warning product lists a Fire Weather Watch for the San Luis Obispo County Mountains and the Santa Barbara County Interior Mountains from Friday morning through Friday afternoon. East winds there are forecast at 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph.
Climate scientist compares risk to January 2025
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, said the fire risk is greater west of the 405 Freeway than east of it. He said some places east of the freeway received 2 to 5 inches of rain from post-Tropical Storm Rachel, while almost no rain fell to the west.
Swain said that part of the region also went through a record-breaking heat wave in early October. He said the risk east of the 405 is lower because it rained recently.
He compared the event with the conditions before the Eaton and Palisades fires in January 2025. “This is not January 2025,” Swain said, adding that the winds will not be as strong or as widespread and that vegetation is not as dry.
Swain said some dry pockets could still see a fairly high-end event, including the western side of the Los Angeles metropolitan area and Ventura and Santa Barbara counties. He said public safety power shutoffs are possible there.
Edison may shut off power in Malibu
The city of Malibu said in a written statement Tuesday that Southern California Edison notified it that power could be shut off on four major circuits: Cuthbert, Galahad, Maguire and Merlin. The potential shutoffs would begin at midnight Thursday, Oct. 15.
The city’s public safety power shutoff page carried an alert for central and west Malibu on Oct. 15 because of dangerous, windy fire conditions. The page explains that when the weather service forecasts critical fire weather, Edison may proactively shut down power in at-risk areas.
Edison also told tens of thousands of customers in Los Angeles and Ventura counties that precautionary shutoffs could affect them. According to initial reports, the utility was considering shutoffs for about 37,700 customers in Los Angeles County as of Tuesday afternoon, and more than 40,000 customers in Ventura County were notified.
How Edison notifies customers
Edison’s expected shutoff notification page explains how customers are warned of planned public safety power shutoffs. The utility generally intends to notify affected customers about 48 hours ahead and again about 24 hours before power is shut off.
According to initial reports, once winds subside, Edison crews could need more than 8 hours to inspect lines before restoring power in Malibu.
Heat advisories along the coast
Kittell said the hottest conditions will be along the coast, where temperatures are forecast in the 90s. He said there is a high risk of heat illness Thursday through Saturday, because many coastal residents do not have air conditioning.
Heat advisories are in effect from Thursday through Saturday for coastal areas. Temperatures are forecast to warm about 10 degrees a day, peaking Friday in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Red flag parking restrictions not in effect
The Los Angeles Fire Department said red flag parking restrictions were not in effect as of Tuesday, Oct. 13. Those restrictions limit parking on designated streets when the weather service forecasts severe fire weather.
The Los Angeles County Fire Department and Ventura County are also among the agencies responsible for the areas under the warning.
Red Flag Warning runs through 10 p.m. Friday
The warning remains in effect until 10 p.m. Friday, Oct. 16, and the heat advisories continue through Saturday. Winds are expected to weaken over the weekend.
Whether Edison shuts off power in Malibu and elsewhere depends on conditions during the wind event.
